Census Issue: Sampling Vs. Counting


The Constitution calls for an "enumeration" of the population ever ten years as determined by Congress. Even the census has now become an issue of political debate, with Republicans and Democrats facing-off to try to assure fairness.

The census will also determine where billions of federal dollars will go for a wide range of programs.

  • The Clinton administration wants to count 90 percent of the population by mail and door-to-door head counts, with another 750,000 people sampled so as to extrapolate and develop data about the rest of the population.

  • Republicans distrust this departure from traditional counting methods -- fearing Democrats will use the process to "find" citizens in traditionally Democratic districts and increase the number of Democratic seats in Congress.

  • Projections of states possibly gaining seats in Congress after the 2000 census include one seat each for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Nevada and Utah -- with two each for Arizona, Georgia and Texas.

  • States which may lose one seat each include Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma and Wisconsin -- with possibly two each for New York and Pennsylvania, according to the National Committee for an Effective Congress.

Some Democrats admit that the sampling method allows "flexibility" -- which could help them in redistricting.

The issues of the census and redistricting will almost certainly wind up before the courts. The Supreme Court has never ruled on the Constitutionality of sampling.

Source: Claude R. Marx, "To Count (Us All) or Not to Count," Investor's Business Daily, May 27, 1997.


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