• In 1992, an estimated 6.6 million Americans were victims of violent crimes.
• In that year, 1.2 million Americans were robbed, and nearly one-half million of the robbery victims were injured.
• Over a lifetime, the average man in our society has an 89 percent probability of being a victim of an attempted crime of violence and the average woman has a 73 percent probability, although half of the attempts are not completed.
• A murder is reported to the police every 21 minutes, a forcible rape every 5 minutes, a robbery every 48 seconds and an aggravated (serious) assault every 28 seconds.
• A motor vehicle theft is reported to the police every 20 seconds, a burglary every 11 seconds and a larceny-theft every 4 seconds.

Figure I shows crimes of violence (murder, rape, robbery and serious assaults) and burglary per 1,000 population since 1950. These rates rose slightly during the 1950s and then exploded during the 1960s and 1970s, increasing the serious crime rate fourfold. In the 1980s and 1990s, however, serious crime reported to the police has leveled off and even shown signs of falling. For example, the FBI has found that the burglary rate is down 30 percent over the last 20 years. In 1994, violent crime was down another 4 percent from the previous year and property crime, including burglary, was down 3 percent.

"The serious crime rate exploded during the 1960s and 1970s."

Crimes reported to the FBI or to state agencies " murder/nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny/theft and motor vehicle theft " are compiled in the FBI Index of Crime and are sometimes referred to as "index crimes." In addition to these FBI crime statistics, another major source of information on the amount of crime is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which records the amount of crime according to the victims - not all of whom had reported the crime to the police. Since fewer than four of every 10 crimes are reported, the NCVS is thought to be the best estimate of true amount of crime. It does not measure murder, however, and there are other differences that allow the two indexes to diverge. According to the survey, the rate of victimization has been falling steadily for 20 years [see Table I]. More than one of every three households was victimized by crime in the early and mid-1970s, but now fewer than one in four is. However, the numbers of violent crimes have remained high, and the FBI Index of Crime shows that the serious crime rate rose from 14.3 per 1,000 population in 1970 to 22.8 in 1980 before beginning to decline.

"In the 1980s and 1990s, serious crime reported to the police has leveled off and even shown signs of falling."

The NCVS shows that household willingness to report crime to the police has risen since 1973 from 32.4 percent of crimes to 38.7 percent, nearly a 20 percent increase. Studies show that reporting itself discourages crimes. Some of the movement in the FBI numbers on serious crimes no doubt reflects this increased willingness to report to the police, as well as recording and data management improvements by police organizations. Therefore, the recent decline in reported crime probably understates the decline in actual crime.

Still, the serious crime rate today is about three times higher than it was in 1960. [See Figure I.] Let’s consider why.

"Surveys of victims indicate a falling rate of serious crime over the past 20 years."