NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

How Policies Of U.S. Presidential Candidates Will Affect Stocks

October 11, 2000

With more than 50 percent of Americans investing in the stock market, how the election will impact stocks is the key issue for many voters. In a recent report, analyst Stuart J. Sweet of Capitol Analysts Network looked at 22 different industries and how a likely Bush or Gore administration might affect their profitability.

Sweet sees Bush as bullish for 12 industries, bearish for 5 and neutral for 5. By contrast, he is bearish for 10 industries under a Gore Administration, bullish for 7 and neutral for 5.

  • He sees no significant difference between a Bush or a Gore Administration for high tech industries -- with the exception of the Microsoft antitrust lawsuit.
  • Defense contractors are also expected to do better under either Bush or Gore -- although Bush is likely to spend more and put more money into weaponry, while Gore may put more into military pay and benefits.

Among industries that would be bullish under Bush and bearish under Gore are oil and gas. Bush will likely press for more domestic drilling, whereas Gore will try to lock up even more land and may impose price controls on gasoline.

  • Bush may be more accommodating to the logging and paper industries, while Gore will probably cut back logging on federal land even if it raises building costs.
  • The property and casualty insurance industry may benefit from scaling back expensive Superfund claims under Bush, while Gore would continue Clinton policies.
  • Conversely, companies involved in environmental cleanup would benefit from Gore but not Bush.

Obviously, the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries will likely suffer under Gore, who will press for drug price controls and continue lawsuits against the cigarette companies. Bush would probably oppose price controls and drop or settle tobacco suits.

Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, October 11, 2000.


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