NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


November 1, 2004

Countries that have adopted the Kyoto Protocol are proving it unworkable, according to the Heartland Institute.

Japan is experiencing challenges in meeting Kyoto standards, while Canada and Russia are having doubts as well.

  • Japan's carbon dioxide emissions are predicted to increase by 5 percent above 1990 levels by the year 2010, which will exceed the required reduction of 6 percent under Kyoto.
  • Japan's energy demand will peak in 2021, then decline -- but the future decline will be due to new technological advancements and a decline in the nation's population, not Kyoto.
  • The Japanese government reported that 2002 greenhouse gas levels were already higher than 1990 levels by 7.3 percent, and a reduction to pre-1990 levels by 2010 would require drastic measures.

Meanwhile, Canadian conservatives are vowing to scrap Kyoto if they win the next national election, saying they would instead implement a more realistic pollution reduction plan which focuses on specific air pollutants, not carbon dioxide.

In May, a report from the Russian Academy of Sciences concluded that the treaty was harmful to Russia's economy and that the Kyoto Protocol lacked substantive scientific evidence.

Source: Iain Murray and Myron Ebell, "Kyoto Proving Unworkable," Environment and Climate News, August 2004, Heartland Institute.


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