NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


October 1, 2004

President Bush's message of creating an ownership-society, the importance of personal responsibility and creating tax-free savings accounts has resonated with the investor class, says economist Larry Kudlow.

In contrast, Kerry's "Europeanized" domestic plan -- which would set up tax penalties on capital formation, upward mobility and the formation of job-creating businesses -- has them spooked. After all, Kerry"s taxes on dividends and capital gains mean a tax on the stock market, explains Kudlow.

Consequently, the 90-million strong investor class believes that re-election of George Bush will be good for Wall Street:

  • Broad stock averages have gone up 9 percent since mid-August, paralleling Bush's recovery in the polls.
  • Online pay-to-play trading markets are showing sizable Bush leads -- the Iowa Electronic Market has Bush at 57 cents and Kerry at 43 cents.

While the economy may not be perfect and homeland security may not be foolproof, the stock market is predicting a strong Bush victory, concludes Kudlow.

Source: Larry Kudlow, "Stocks & Polls Agree on Bush,", September 15, 2004.


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