NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

Hillary Clinton's Tax Plan under the NCPA's Model of the U.S. Economy

August 22, 2016

Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's tax plan would increase public sector jobs by 49,000 in 2017, but they would come at a cost of 207,000 private sector jobs, according to an analysis by the National Center for Policy Analysis.  In 2026, the public sector would gain 54,000 jobs, but 265,000 private sector jobs would be lost.  In essence, every government job created by Hillary would eventually cost nearly 5 private sector jobs.  Her plan would have other recessionary effects on the economy, such as:

  • In the first year, real GDP would be more than half a percent less than under the Congressional Budget Office's current baseline estimate and almost 1 percent less in 2026.
  • Personal income would be $47 billion less in 2017 alone; this loss would increase to $103 billion in 2026.
  • Business investment would be 0.7 percent less in 2017, increasing to a more than 1 percent loss in 2026.

This analysis is based on results from the NCPA's modeling of the U.S. economy, in partnership with Dr. David Tuerck and his team at the Beacon Hill Institute in Boston, Massachusetts.  

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