NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

Forty-Three States Should See Growth in 2014

January 16, 2014

Revenues and expenditures are expected to go up in most states in 2014, but only 20 states have reached their pre-recession peaks, says Stateline.

The National Association of State Budget Officers released a new report that indicates that 43 states should see growth in revenues and spending in fiscal year 2014.

  • The states that are likely to see the largest growth are North Dakota, Oregon, Hawaii, Texas and Ohio.
  • The states facing the largest decreases in revenue and spending are Alaska, Kansas, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota.

Of the states that are not expected to see revenue growth, Alaska has the worst outlook:

  • Alaska has suffered due to the movement of oil companies from its state into Texas and North Dakota, as well as from falling energy prices.
  • In the second quarter of 2013, Alaska saw the largest revenue decline from its pre-recession peak than any other state.
  • Alaska's governor, Sean Parnell, has proposed a $1.3 billion decrease from 2014 in general fund spending levels for 2015 to address the state's spending problems and unfunded pension liability payments.

Of the states that are expected to see revenue growth:

  • California and New York have budget surpluses due to higher income taxes and increases in property taxes. One analysis expects a $234 million surplus for California at the end of 2015. Democratic legislators want to see the state's rainy day fund spent on child care, welfare and kindergarten.
  • In New York, which has a $2 billion surplus, Governor Cuomo has mulled instituting cuts in property taxes and renters' taxes.
  • Kentucky, Nebraska and Oregon are also considering tax overhauls.

State revenue growth is not expected to be robust, but modest, according to the executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, Scott Pattison. 

Source: Elaine S. Povich, "Fiscal Outlook Brighter in Most States," Stateline, January 10, 2014. "The Fiscal Survey of the States," National Association of State Budget Officers, Fall 2013.


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