NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

America's Most Competitive Metros Since 2010

November 14, 2012

Many metropolitan areas are experiencing job growth and overall economic growth due to a variety of factors. An economic analysis method, called shift share, looks to see how much of the growth can be attributed to regional factors rather than national trends, says Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.

The major components of shift share are:

  • Industrial Mix Effect: the share of regional industry growth explained by the growth of the industry on a national level.
  • National Growth Effect: regional industry's growth explained by the overall growth of the national economy.
  • Expected Change: the rate of growth of an industry at the national level.
  • Regional Competitiveness Effect: how much of the change in a given industry is due to some unique competitive advantage that the region possesses.

The data was used to find the top five metropolitan areas that have experienced an increase in economic competitiveness. The cities were ranked in terms of how much job growth was a result of increased competitiveness from 2010-2012.

  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California: 3.5 percent job growth.
  • Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas: 3.4 percent job growth.
  • Bakersfield, California: 3.1 percent job growth.
  • Provo-Orem, Utah: 2.8 percent job growth.
  • Houston-Sugar Land-Bayton, Texas: 2.7 percent job growth.

The bottom five metros include:

  • Augustana-Richmond Country, Georgia/South Carolina: -3.9 percent job loss.
  • Albuquerque, New Mexico: -3.4 percent job loss.
  • Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Florida: -3.3 percent job loss.
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida: -2.4 percent job loss.
  • Modesto, California: -2.3 percent job loss.

Source: "America's Most Competitive Metros Since 2000," Economic Modeling Specialists Intl., November 7, 2012.


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