NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


April 28, 2008

The world is far more peaceful today than it was 15 years ago, says Michael L. Ross, a Professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.  There were 17 major civil wars in the late 1980s; by 2006, there were just five. During that period, the number of smaller conflicts also fell, from 33 to 27.

Despite this trend, there has been no drop in the number of wars in countries that produce oil, says Ross:

  • Today, with violence falling in general, oil-producing states make up a growing fraction of the world's conflict-ridden countries.
  • They now host about a third of the world's civil wars, both large and small, up from one-fifth in 1992.
  • The main reason is that oil wealth often wreaks havoc on a country's economy and politics, makes it easier for insurgents to fund their rebellions, and aggravates ethnic grievances.

The number of oil-producer-based conflicts is likely to grow in the future as stratospheric prices of crude oil push more countries in the developing world to produce oil and gas, according to Ross:

  • More than a dozen countries in Africa, the Caspian basin and Southeast Asia have recently become, or will soon become, significant oil and gas exporters.
  • Some of these countries, including Chad, East Timor and Myanmar, have already suffered internal strife.
  • Most of the rest are poor, undemocratic and badly governed, which means that they are likely to experience violence as well.
  • On top of that, record oil prices will yield the kind of economic windfalls that typically produce further unrest.

Oil is not unique; diamonds and other minerals produce similar problems.  But as the world's most sought-after commodity, and with more countries dependent on it than on gold, copper, or any other resource, oil has an impact more pronounced and more widespread, says Ross.

Source: Michael L. Ross, "Blood Barrels," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008.

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