NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


March 18, 2008

The latest underreported bad news for Al Gore, says Geoff Metcalf, a radio talk show host, is that reports by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are flawed and cannot be supported, according to a panel of statisticians, chaired by Edward J. Wegman of George Mason University.


  • The researchers who created the Gore model used the wrong time scale to establish the mean temperature to compare with recorded temperatures of the last century; because the mean temperature was low, the recent temperature rise seemed unusual and dramatic.
  • On top of that annoying statistical whoops, the community of specialists in ancient climates from which the peer reviewers were drawn was way small and many of them were linked to the original authors -- no less than 43 paleoclimatologists had previously co-authored papers with the lead researcher.

Researchers have developed 140 principles that can be applied to a broad range of disciplines, including science, sociology, economics and politics.  A recent National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) study used these principles to audit the climate forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report:

  • The NCPA found the IPCC clearly violated 60 of the 127 principles, or 47 percent relevant in assessing the IPCC predictions.
  • According to the Washington Times, it could only be clearly established that the IPCC followed 17 of the more than 127, or only 13 percent forecasting principles critical to making sound predictions.
  • To add insult to injury, the final draft of the IPCC 'work' was co-written with political appointees and required their approval prior to release.

H. Sterling Burnett, a senior fellow with the NCPA, says the IPCC recommendations are flawed and violate general forecasting principles.  "Sadly, Mr. Green and Mr. Armstrong found no evidence that the IPCC was even aware of the vast literature on scientific forecasting methods, much less applied the principles."

Source: Geoff Metcalf, "Conflicting Theories of 'Global Warming,'" News with Views, March 17, 2008.

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