NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


December 13, 2007

Part of the scientific consensus on global warming may be flawed, according to a study published in the International Journal of Climatology.


  • Researchers compared predictions of 22 widely used climate "models" -- elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global weather system will behave -- with actual readings gathered by surface stations, weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.
  • While most of the models predicted that the middle and upper parts of the troposphere --1 to 6 miles above the Earth's surface -- would have warmed drastically over the past 30 years, actual observations showed only a little warming, especially over tropical regions.

"Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past? It seems that the answer is no," said lead study author David H. Douglass, a physicist specializing in climate at the University of Rochester.

Further, the difference between the climate models and the satellite data has been known for several years.  Studies in 2005 found that improper compensation for temperature differences between day and night was the cause of most of the satellite-data discrepancy, a correction that John R. Christy, climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, major contributor to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and new study co-author, has accepted.

Source: "Study: Part of Global-Warming Model May Be Wrong," Fox News, December 12, 2007.

For text:,2933,316566,00.html

For study abstract:


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