NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis


November 17, 2006

Human activities have little to do with the Earth's current warming trend, according to a new book by Denis Avery and Fred Singer, adjunct scholars with the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA).

In fact, the book concludes that global warming and cooling seem to be part of natural cycles of moderate temperature swings.  According to Avery and Singer:

  • Within 90,000-year Ice Age cycles, the Earth also experiences 1,500-year warming-cooling cycles.
  • The current warming began about 1850 and will possibly continue for another 500 years.
  • Their findings are drawn from physical evidence of past climate cycles that have been documented by researchers around the world from tree rings and ice cores, stalagmites and dust plumes, prehistoric villages and collapsed cultures, fossilized pollen and algae skeletons, titanium profiles and niobium ions, and other sources.

Considered collectively, the author's findings are clear and convincing evidence of a 1,500-year climate cycle.  The implications are just as clear:

  • If the current warming trend is part of a natural cycle, then actions to prevent further warming would be futile.
  • In addition, they could impose substantial costs upon the global economy and lessen the ability of the world's peoples to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

"The evidence supporting a 1,500- year cycle is too great to dismiss," said S. Fred Singer, co-author of the book, professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia and president of the Science and Environment Policy Project.  "Evidence from every continent and ocean confirms the 1,500-year cycle," added Dennis Avery, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and the book's other co-author.

Source: "NCPA: Warming Caused by Natural Cycle, Not Humans; NCPA Adjunct Scholars Avery and Singer Outline Unstoppable Climate in New Book," National Center for Policy Analysis, November 16, 2006.

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