NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

America in 100 Years

January 13, 2000

The Census Bureau has issued a report projecting population numbers by age, sex, race and national origin for every year until 2100, based on current population trends.

Here are some of the bureau's forecasts:

  • The U.S. population is expected to more than double to 571 million by 2100.
  • There could be 190 million Hispanics, six times more than today, and 72 million Asian-Americans, almost seven times more than today.
  • Non-Hispanic whites could drop from 72 percent of the population now to 40 percent.
  • The number of people 65 and older will almost quadruple to 131 million -- and 5.3 million will be centenarians compared with 59,000 today.

But some critics urge caution on the numbers. "Anyone who claims to be able to predict with accuracy what the population will be 100 years from now is an entertainer, not an analyst," says Rand Corp. demographer Peter Morrison.

In 1989, the Census Bureau projected the U.S. population at 268 million by 2000. It is approaching 275 million -- primarily due to a burst in immigration since 1990.

Source: Haya El Nasser, "Census Predicts Ethnic Face of the Nation in 100 Years," USA Today, January 13, 2000.


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