NCPA - National Center for Policy Analysis

Minorities Will Soon Flock To Campuses, But Will They Succeed?

May 24, 2000

College enrollment will swell over the next 15 years, according to the Educational Testing Service, and black, Hispanic and Asian students will account for 80 percent of the growth. But education officials worry that a number of the minority newcomers will not be sufficiently prepared for the rigors of higher education.

  • As an additional two million students flock to college campuses in the next 15 years, the proportion of Hispanic students will increase to 15 percent from 11 percent, and Asians to 8 percent from 5 percent, while black enrollment will stay steady at about 13 percent.
  • The proportion of white students on campuses nationwide will drop from 71 percent in 1995 to 63 percent by 2015.
  • Whites will be a minority on campuses by then in California, the District of Columbia, Hawaii and New Mexico -- and soon thereafter in Texas.
  • Five states with large Hispanic populations -- Arizona, California, Florida, New York and Texas -- will account for more than half the overall increase in undergraduates over the next 15 years.

While minority college enrollment is skyrocketing, it is not growing as fast as the black and Hispanic populations ages 18-24. The study says that black and Hispanic enrollment in higher education will actually decrease in proportion to their populations between 1995 and 2015.

Source: Jodi Wilgoren, "Swell of Minority Students Is Predicted at Colleges," New York Times, May 24, 2000.


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