Evidence From the States: California vs. Texas

In 1980, the California state prison population (98 per 100,000 population) was 30 percent below the national average and its rate of violent crime and burglary was 40 percent above the national average. In Texas, by contrast, the prison population (210 per 100,000 population) was 50 percent above the national average and its serious crime rate only 5 percent above the national average [see Figures IX and X (11k)]. By the end of the 1980s, California’s state prison population was 9 percent above the national average and its serious crime rate had declined to 22 percent above the national average [see Figure X]. In Texas, meanwhile, the state prison population had fallen 5 percent below the national average and its rate of serious crime had jumped to 45 percent above the national average.

"The two most populous states, California and Texas, followed opposite paths in the 1980s and 1990s, with very different impacts on the amount of serious crime." The ratio of prisoners to Texas residents remained below the national average in the late 1980s, primarily due to federal court orders and prison capacity constraints. During the early 1990s, however, Texas went on a building spree and doubled its prison population. At 545 prisoners per 100,000 population, Texas became the state with the highest number of inmates per resident in 1994 (Louisiana stood second at 514 and South Carolina was third at 504; lowest was North Dakota at 75). [See Figure XI.(11k)]

Has crime in Texas declined? Definitely. As Figure XII (11k) shows, California was unable to reduce its rate of violent crimes and burglaries, while in Texas the rate declined 21 percent. Preliminary FBI data show a further 9.4 percent decline in Texas’ largest cities in 1994. The national rate fell only 4.6 percent. When compared to 1990 rates, the lower 1994 crime rates imply that 800 fewer Texans were murdered and 340,000 fewer felony crimes were reported to the police. Houston Mayor Bob Lanier attributes the continuing decline in crime in his city to (increased law enforcement and an increase in state action on prisons and paroles.)22

"Root causes" of crime did not change in Houston or Texas, although the economy recently has strengthened and unemployment has dropped. Despite liberal rhetoric to the contrary, economic factors like poverty, a poor economy, low wage or income growth and high unemployment do not cause crime. If anything, the reverse is true: crime causes poverty and economic stagnation. None of the unpleasant social or demographic facts about Texas have changed: births to unmarried women continue to grow, high school dropout rates remain at about 20 percent and the number of Texans living in poverty has increased about 20 percent in the 1990s, to more than 3.1 million.

"During the 1980s, California’s prison population increased and its serious crime rate fell."

"As the Texas prison population fell below the national average in the 1980s, its serious crime rate went from 5 percent to 45 percent above the national average."

"During the early 1990s, Texas went on a building spree and doubled its prison population."

"California was unable to reduce its rate of serious crime, but Texas’ dropped 21 percent."