Expected Punishment and Crime

"The number of commitments by courts remained steady while the number of serious crimes reported tripled."

Expected punishment per reported serious crime remained low until the early 1980s because the prison time served fell while the probability of going to prison began to increase, leaving expected punishment essentially unchanged. Sentences served were shorter primarily because of court orders and prison capacity constraints that kept the criminal justice door revolving rapidly. Not until the mid-1980s did expected punishment begin to rise for predatory crimes. By 1992, expected punishment had risen from an early 1980s low of 10 days to 17 days, a 70 percent increase. Yet expected punishment in the 1990s remains far below the 29 days of 1960 and the 50 days of 1950.

Between 1985 and 1992, the overall probability of going to prison for a violent index crime increased from 3.31 to 3.65 percent and for a burglary from 1.15 to 1.39 percent.

"Expected punishment per crime plunged from 50 prison days in 1950 to only 10 days in 1970."

Expected Punishment, 1985-92.

"By 1992, expected punishment had increased by nearly 70 percent from the 1970s and early 1980s but remained far below earlier years."

Much of the recent increase in expected punishment results from an increase in the probability of going to prison, especially the higher odds of being prosecuted, convicted and sent to prison following an arrest. Prisoners served longer sentences between 1985 and 1992, too. During that period, the median time served by those convicted of a violent index crime increased from 25.4 months to 30.5 months while the median time served for property offenders remained flat at 12.5 months.

Between 1985 and 1992, expected punishment:
• for murder increased dramatically from 10 months to 26 months,
• for rape nearly doubled to 93 days,
• for robbery increased moderately to 34 days,
• for serious assault increased more than one-third to 10 days,
• for burglary increased nearly one-third to 6 days,
• for larceny/theft increased about one-third but remained at less than a day and
• for motor vehicle theft rose 60 percent but remained at less than two days.

Average vs. Median Time Served.

"Between 1985 and 1992, the average sentence served per violent crime increased from 31 to 46 days."

The average time served in prison exceeds the median time served because the average is sensitive to the small minority of prisoners released after serving extremely long sentences. The median, by contrast, is insensitive to the longest imprisonments. The average time served exceeded the median time by about 30 percent in 1985 and 40 percent by 1992 due to tougher sentencing policies.

Between 1985 and 1992, the expected punishment in terms of average sentences served increased from 31 to 46 days of prison time for violent crimes and from 2.7 to 3.3 days for property crimes. Total prison days served by all criminals convicted of index crimes went from 5.8 to 9.1 days (vs. an increase from 4.5 to 6.5 days in median days served). 19