Thinking About Crime

"Most crimes are not irrational acts."

Because criminals and potential criminals rarely have accurate information about the probabilities of arrest, conviction and imprisonment, they are generally uncertain of the punishment they can expect. Some overestimate their probability of success, while others underestimate theirs. Despite the element of subjectivity, the evidence shows that crime will increase if the expected cost to criminals declines. This is true for crimes of passion as well as economic crimes such as burglary or auto theft. The less crime costs, the less people try to control their impulses. The view that potential criminals respond to incentives is consistent with public opinion13 and with the perceptions of potential criminals themselves.14 It also is supported by considerable statistical research. 15