The Economic Effects of Repealing The Job Killing Provisions of Obamacare

Special Publications | Health


Friday, March 31, 2017
by David Tuerck, Ph.D.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? The Economic Case for Health Care Reform(circa 2009)*

  • Health care reform would increase real gross domestic product (GDP), relative to the no-reform baseline, by over 2 percent in 2020 and nearly 8 percent in 2030.
  • The beneficial impact on employment in the short and medium run (relative to the no-reform baseline) is estimated to be approximately 500,000 each year that the effect is felt.
  • Expanding health insurance coverage to the uninsured would increase net economic well-being by roughly $100 billion a year, which is roughly two-thirds of a percent of GDP.

* Council of Economic Advisers

Today’s Presentation

  • How we model the economic effects of tax and subsidy changes.
  • The economic effects of repealing the taxes and subsidies provided for by the ACA.
    • Effects on key economic indicators.
    • Revenue effects

The NCPA DCGE Model

  • Dynamic: Future economic conditions respond to current-period policy changes through a dynamic optimization process by households and firms.
  • Computable: The model utilizes computer algorithms that make it possible to solve a system of nonlinear equations.
  • General Equilibrium: Prices adjust to a policy changes across all sectors to equate supply and demand.

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