The Developed World's Demographic Transition

Special Publications | Government


Thursday, October 30, 2003
by Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, and Larry Kotlikoff

The entire developed world stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years, the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. With no change in policy, paying the elderly their promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll taxes.

For Complete Publication:  sp20031030.pdf