Living with Global Warming

Studies | Global Warming

No. 278
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
by Indur M. Goklany


Notes

  1. Views expressed here are the author’s. This paper draws on a presentation at the Symposium sponsored by the U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change,” Exeter, February 1 to 3, 2005.
  2. Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment, Vol. 14, No. 6, November 1, 2003, pages 797-822.
  3. IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
  4. The cumulative GDP of Annex I countries in 2003 was $29 trillion in 2003 dollars; World Bank, World Development Indicators Online ( Washington, D.C.: World Bank, April 2005). Available at http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2005/wditext/Cover.htm. By 2010 their GDP should be $33 trillion (also in 2003 dollars), assuming that they continue to grow at the same rate as they did between 1996 and 2003.
  5. Robert T. Watson, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), page 100.
  6. Martin L. Parry, et al., “Millions at Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats and Targets,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11, No. 3, October 9, 2001, pages 181-183; David A. King, “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science, Vol. 303, No. 5655, January 9, 2004, pages 176-177.
  7. N.W. Arnell, et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, Vol. 53, No. 4, June 2002, pages 413-446.
  8. U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Scientific and Technical Aspects of Climate Change, Including Impacts and Adaptation and Associated Costs (London: DEFRA, September 2004). Available online at www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/pdf/cc-science-0904.pdf.
  9. Martin L. Parry, et al., “A New Assessment of the Global Effects of Climate Change,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, Supplement 1, October 25, 1999, pages S51-S67; N.W. Arnell, et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, Vol. 53, No. 4, June 2002, pages 413-446.
  10. Martin L. Parry, et al., “Millions at Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats and Targets,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11, Issue 3, October 9, 2001, pages 181-183; N.W. Arnell, et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, Vol. 53, No. 4, June 2002, pages 413-446; David A. King, “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science, Vol. 303, No. 5655, January 9, 2004, pages 176-177.
  11. Indur M. Goklany, “Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems,” Technology, Vol. 7, Supplement 1, 2000, pages 189-213; Indur M. Goklany, “Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,” Political Economy Research Center, Policy Series No. 21, April 2001.
  12. Ibid.
  13. Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment, Vol. 14, No. 6, November 1, 2003, pages 797-822.
  14. The increases under all scenarios but the Kyoto Protocol are based on Martin L. Parry, et al., “Millions at Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats and Targets,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11, Issue 3, October 9, 2001, pages 181-183. The temperature increase under the Kyoto Protocol is assumed to be 7 percent below the uncontrolled case, which is an overestimate. See Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.
  15. Robert T. Watson, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
  16. World Health Organization, World Health Report 1999 (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1999).
  17. World Health Organization, World Health Report 1999 (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1999) specifies that malaria deaths could be halved at a cost of less than $1.25 billion. The $1.5 billion is calculated assuming that WHO’s estimates are in terms of 1995 dollars and that average inflation rate between 1995 and 2003 is 2 percent per annum, which is relatively close to the GDP deflator for the United States per the World Bank, World Development Indicators Online (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, April 2005). Available at http://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2005/wditext/Cover.htm.
  18. Indur M. Goklany, “Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems,” Technology; Indur M. Goklany, “Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,” Political Economy Research Center, Policy Series No. 21, April 2001.
  19. This calculation assumes that changes in food production would be achieved through changes in productivity; that is, effectively increasing yields, rather than the area under cultivation.
  20. Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.
  21. Ibid.
  22. Indur M. Goklany, “Saving Habitat and Conserving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet,” BioScience, Vol. 48, November 1998, pages 941-953; Indur M. Goklany, “Comparing 20th Century Trends in U.S. and Global Agricultural Land and Water Use,” Water International, Vol. 27, No. 3, September 2002, pages 321-329.
  23. N.W. Arnell, et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, Vol. 53, No. 4, June 2002, pages 413-446.
  24. Indur M. Goklany, “Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,” Political Economy Research Center, Policy Series, No. 21, April 2001.
  25. Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.
  26. Indur M. Goklany, “Comparing 20th Century Trends in U.S. and Global Agricultural Land and Water Use,” Water International, Vol. 27, No. 3, September 2002, pages 321-329; Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.
  27. Indur M. Goklany, “Comparing 20th Century Trends in U.S. and Global Agricultural Land and Water Use,” Water International, Vol. 27, No. 3, September 2002, pages 321-329.
  28. Mike Hulme, et al., “Climate Change Scenarios for Global Impact Studies,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, Supplement 1, October 25, 1999, pages S3-S19.
  29. Robert T. Watson, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.
  30. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: Economic & Social Dimensions of Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), page 191.
  31. N.W. Arnell, et al., “The Consequences of CO2 Stabilization for the Impacts of Climate Change,” Climatic Change; and, for 2050 decrease in forests, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change1995: Impacts, Adaptation, & Mitigation of Climate Change, pages 95-129, 492-496.
  32. Indur M. Goklany, “Saving Habitat and Conserving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet,” BioScience; Indur M. Goklany, “Comparing 20th Century Trends in U.S. and Global Agricultural Land and Water Use,” Water International; Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.
  33. Robert T. Watson, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report; T.J. Wilbanks, et al., “Possible Responses to Global Climate Change: Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation,” Environment, Vol. 45, June 2003, pages 28-38.
  34. Goklany, manuscript in preparation.
  35. Indur M. Goklany, “Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade,” Climatic Change, Vol. 30, 1995, pages 427-449; Indur M. Goklany, “Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems,” Technology, Vol. 7, Supplement 1, 2000, pages 189-213; Indur M. Goklany, “Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,” Political Economy Research Center, Policy Series No. 21, April 2001.
  36. Robert T. Watson, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report; Gary W. Yohe, “Mitigative Capacity: The Mirror Image of Adaptive Capacity on the Emissions Side,” Climatic Change, Vol. 49, No. 3, May 2001, pages 247-262.
  37. Indur M. Goklany, “Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade,” Climatic Change. See also Goklany, manuscript in preparation.
  38. UN Millennium Project, Investing in development: A practical plan to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (New York: EarthScan and UN Millennium Project, 2005).
  39. R. Watson and I. Johnson, “Developing Countries Face Worst in Global Warming,” Business Day ( Johannesburg), July 23, 2001. Available online at www.allafrica.com/stories/200107230695.html; Andrew Simms, et al., Up in Smoke: Threats from, and Responses to, the Impact of Global Warming on Human Development (London: New Economics Foundation, October 20, 2004).
  40. Julian Morris, Sustainable Development: Promoting Progress or Perpetuating Poverty (London: Profile Books, 2002); Indur M. Goklany, “Economic Growth and the State of Humanity,” Political Economy Research Center.
  41. Cordis News, “Reducing Global Warming Is Our Priority, Say Chirac and Blair,” Cordis News, November 19, 2004; David A. King, “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science, Vol. 303, No. 5655, January 9, 2004, pages 176-177.
  42. Cordis News, “Reducing Global Warming Is Our Priority, Say Chirac and Blair,” Cordis News, November 19, 2004.
  43. Indur M. Goklany, “Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment.

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