The Texas experience during most of the 1980s differed sharply from the national picture. Expected punishment rose nationally, keeping U.S. crime rates below the peak recorded in 1980.36

• Between 1980 and 1988, the expected number of days in prison rose 36 percent nationally but dropped 37 percent in Texas.

• During that same period, crime in Texas increased from 3 percent to 42 percent above the national average.37

During the 1990s this pattern has been reversed: crime in Texas has declined much more steeply than in the nation as a whole, while the Texas prison population has grown more rapidly than the nation’s.

"Every type of crime has decreased except aggravated asault."

The two most populous states, California and Texas, together account for more than one of every five inmates in the country, with 131,342 and 127,092 prisoners, respectively, as of June 30, 1995. These two states have followed opposite paths during the 1980s and 1990s, with very different impacts on the amount of serious crime.

"During the 1980's, California's prison population increased and its serious crime rate fell."

Texas vs. California: the 1980s. In 1980, the California state prison population (98 per 100,000 population) was 30 percent below the national average and the state’s rate of violent crime and burglary was 40 percent above the national average. In Texas, by contrast, the prison population (210 per 100,000 population) was 50 percent above the national average and its serious crime rate only 5 percent above the national average [see Figures VI and VII].

"As the Texan prison populaton fell below the national average in the 1980's, its serious crime rate went from 5 percent to 45 percent above the national average."

By the end of the 1980s, California’s state prison population was 9 percent above the national average and its serious crime rate had declined to 22 percent above the national average. In Texas, meanwhile, the state prison population had fallen 5 percent below the national average and its rate of serious crime had jumped to 45 percent above the national average.

"During the early 1990s, Texas went on a building spree and doubled its prison population."

Texas vs. California: the 1990s. The ratio of prisoners to Texas residents remained below the national average in the late 1980s, primarily due to federal court orders and prison capacity constraints. As noted above, however, during the early 1990s Texas doubled its prison population. During the same period, California’s prison population increased by about one-third.38 At 659 prisoners per 100,000 population, Texas became the state with the highest number of inmates per resident at midyear 1995. [See Figure VIII.]

"California was able to reduce its rate of violent crimes and burgularies by only 14 percent, while in Texas the rate declined 35 percent."

The result? Texas was more effective in combating crime. As Figure IX shows, California was able to reduce its rate of violent crimes and burglaries by only 14 percent, while in Texas the rate declined 35 percent.