Texas suffered an increase of 29 percent in the rate of serious crime in the 1980s, while the rate in the United States as a whole declined by 4 percent. But the outlook for law-abiding citizens in Texas has improved dramatically during the 1990s:1

• After peaking at 8.0 crimes for every 100 people in 1988 (41 percent above the national average), the Texas crime rate has plummeted by 30 percent, to 5.6 crimes for every 100 people (10 percent above the national average).

• The overall crime rate in Texas now is the lowest since 1973.

• The murder rate is the lowest since 1966.

• The burglary rate is the lowest since 1968.

The reductions in crime have been largest in the big cities. As Figure I shows, reported crime between 1991 and 1994 fell 35 percent in Dallas and 29 percent in Houston. For the country as a whole, by contrast, crime fell only 8 percent over the three-year period. Preliminary figures for the first half of 1995 show another reduction in violent crime2 of 9 percent in Dallas and 7 percent in Houston.3 Property crime4 decreased 6 percent in Dallas during the first half of 1995, but rose 2.7 percent in Houston (with no adjustment for population change).5

"Between 1991 and mid-1995, murder in Texas fell 41 percent; motor vehicle theft fell 43 percent."

These declines are not likely to be mere statistical illusions. They reflect very real improvements in public safety. The number of murders reported is generally conceded to be accurate. So is the number of motor vehicle thefts because cars and trucks are relatively expensive, insured items. Between 1991 and mid-1995, murder in the state fell 41 percent and motor vehicle theft 43 percent. Further, although many crimes are not reported to the police,6 the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that the reporting rates have been gradually creeping upward (up 20 percent since 1973), and better performance by the criminal justice system has stimulated even more reporting. Thus the decline in total crime, considering both crimes reported to the police and those not reported, may actually be even greater than the statistics indicate.

Texans should take some satisfaction in this achievement. Compared to 1991, the lower crime rates mean that 1,140 fewer Texans will be murdered this year and 450,000 fewer crimes against person and property will be reported to the police. However, a serious crime problem remains:7

• Every year, more than 250,000 Texans are victims of violent crimes, of which only 130,000 are reported to the police.

• More than 2 million Texans each year are victims of property crimes: burglary, larceny/theft and arson.

• On an average day in Texas, 5 to 6 murders, 25 rapes, 103 robberies and 222 life-threatening assaults are reported to the police.

• A car is stolen every 4.7 minutes and a burglary is committed every 2.4 minutes.

The overall Texas crime rate — the number of serious crimes per 100 residents — remains high relative to that of other states:8

• Although the state’s overall crime rate was below the national average in 1975, today it is 10 percent above the national average.

• The state’s murder rate was the 10th highest in the nation in 1994.

• Based on 14 risk factors, Texas was rated the sixth most dangerous state in which to live in 1993 by Morgan Quitino Press of Lawrence, Kan., a company specializing in state and statistical rankings.9