Are We Running Out of Oil?

Policy Backgrounders | Environment

No. 159
Wednesday, January 29, 2003
by David Deming


Notes

  1. E. D. Porter, "Are We Running Out of Oil?" API Discussion Paper No. 081, 1995, American Petroleum Institute.
  2. Ibid.
  3. Ibid.
  4. L. M. Fanning, "A Case History of Oil-shortage Scares," in Our Oil Resources, 2nd Ed., L. M. Fanning, ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1950), pages 306-406.
  5. J. Akins, "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf Is Here," Foreign Affairs, April 1973.
  6. M. L. Jensen and A. M. Bateman, 1981, Economic Mineral Deposits, 3rd Ed. (New York: John Wiley, 1981), page 593.
  7. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, British Petroleum, June 2002. Available at http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893.
  8. Table 5.19, "Crude Oil Refiner Acquisition Costs, 1968-2001," Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0519.html.
  9. BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
  10. C. Campbell, "Oil Price Leap in the Early Nineties," Noroil, December 1989, pages 35-38.
  11. L. F. Ivanhoe, "Future World Oil Supplies: There Is a Finite Limit," World Oil, vol. 216, 1995, pages 77-88.
  12. C. J. Campbell and J. H. Laherrère, "The End of Cheap Oil," Scientific American, vol. 278, 1998, pages 78-83.
  13. R. A. Kerr, "The Next Oil Crisis Looms Large - and Perhaps Close," Science, vol. 281, 1998, pages 1128-31.
  14. C. B. Hatfield, "Oil Back on the Global Agenda," Nature, vol. 387, 1997, page 121.
  15. P. J. McCabe, "Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?" AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82, 1998, pages 2110-34.
  16. Ibid.
  17. Ibid.
  18. See McCabe, "Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?" p. 2118, for cumulative world oil production through 1995. For annual world oil production, 1996-2000, see Table 2.2, "World Crude Oil Production, 1991-2000," Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table22.html.
  19. Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 99, December 24, 2001, p. 127.
  20. David Deming, "Oil: Are We Running Out?" in M.W. Downey, J. C. Threet and W. A. Morgan, eds., Petroleum Provinces of the 21st Century, AAPG Memoir 74, 2001, pages 45-55.
  21. Ibid.
  22. Porter, "Are We Running Out of Oil?" American Petroleum Institute Discussion Paper No. 081, 1995.
  23. M. C. Lynch, 2002, "Forecasting Oil Supply: Theory and Practice," Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 42, 2002, pages 373-89.
  24. M. K. Hubbert, "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," American Petroleum Institute's Drilling and Production Practice, 1956, pages 7-25.
  25. Hubbert oral biography, American Institute of Physics, 1989.
  26. Hubbert was deliberately obscure in describing his methods. The only complete description of his methodology is found in: M. K. Hubbert, "Techniques of Prediction as Applied to the Production of Oil and Gas," in S. I. Gass, ed., Oil and Gas Supply Modeling, National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 631, 1982, pages 16-141.
  27. Ibid.
  28. McCabe, "Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?"
  29. Table 2.4, "World Dry Natural Gas Production, 1991-2000," Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table24.html.
  30. McCabe, "Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel?"
  31. N. Nakicenovic, A. Grübler and A. McDonald, Global Energy Perspectives (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), page 299.

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