International Policy

Hudson Institute Article: Population To Peak, Then Decline

World population growth has accelerated in this century, growing from 1.6 billion in 1900 to an expected almost 6 billion by the new millennium. However, the last 20 years have built a mountain of evidence that the world's population will stop growing within the lifetime of many people now living.

  • Some 44 percent of the world's population now live in countries where the fertility rate is already below the replacement level of 2.1 births per female.

  • In less developed countries -- such as Kenya and Bangladesh -- where fertility is still above the replacement level, the rate has been declining and is expected to reach the level of developed nations in a few decades.

Barring a drastic change in trends, demographers estimate that world population will reach its peak somewhere near the middle of the 21st century, after rising to about 8 billion, and then decline.

Although the U.S. fertility rate has been a little below replacement level for 25 years, our population is still young enough to produce a natural increase of more than 0.5 percent per year, in addition to an immigration rate above 0.25 percent per year. Although the median age in the U.S. has already increased from 28 in 1970 to nearly 35 today, our total population will probably top 350 million before it stops increasing.

Until recently, it was assumed that fertility would decline only until it reached the replacement rate, and would then remain fairly stable. But in country after country this expectation has proven false, and fertility has continued to fall as fast after reaching the replacement rate as before.

Source: Max Singer, "Population and Changing Belief Systems," American Outlook, Spring 1998, Hudson Institute, 5395 Emerson Way, Indianapolis, Ind. 46226, (317) 545-1000.

For current U.S. population http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/popclock

For current World population http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclockw

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