International Policy

A New, Older World

Fertility rates in Europe and developed countries around the world are falling at a dramatic pace, demographers warn. With life expectancy rising at the same time that fertility drops, many developed countries may soon find themselves with lopsided societies that will be nearly impossible to sustain -- a large number of elderly and not enough young people to support them. Experts warn the change will affect every public program.

  • There is no longer a single country in Europe where people are having enough children to replace themselves when they die.

  • Italy recently became the first nation in history in which there are more people over the age of 60 than there are under the age of 20 -- and Germany, Greece and Spain are expected to cross the same divide this year.

  • Last year, Japan's fertility rate -- the number of children born on average to a woman -- fell to 1.39, the lowest level it has ever reached there.

  • Even in the third world, according to United Nations statistics, the fertility rate has been cut in half -- from six children per woman to three.

In the U.S., where a large pool of new immigrants helps keep the fertility rate higher than in any other prosperous country, the figure is still slightly below an average of 2.1 children per woman -- the population replacement rate.

Sweden may have tried harder than any other country to check the birth rate decline. It spends 10 times as much as Italy or Spain on programs designed to support families. But between 1990 and March 1998, the country's fertility rate fell from 2.12 to 1.42 -- and officials think it might be falling still. Critics are quick to note that not even socialism can make babies.

"What is happening now has simply never happened before in the history of the world," says Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute. "If these trends continue, in a generation or two there may be countries where people's only blood relatives will be their parents."

Source: Michael Specter, "Population Implosion Worries a Graying Europe," New York Times, July 10, 1998.

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