When the number of blacks and Hispanics admitted to the University of California at Berkeley and UC Los Angeles fell as racial preference policies were terminated, the news made headlines across the country. But the numbers were misleading, some analysts are pointing out, and not nearly as dramatic when all eight UC campuses are included.

• The proportion of blacks receiving letters of admission at Berkeley dropped 57 percent and at UCLA 40 percent -- while Hispanics being admitted declined 40 percent at Berkeley and 33 percent at UCLA.

• But when admissions at all eight UC campuses are totaled, black admissions declined only 18 percent and the drop for Hispanics was only 7 percent.

• At one school, UC Riverside, the proportion of blacks getting in actually shot up 34 percent -- while the rate for Hispanics gained 43 percent.

Analysts say admission rates are being overemphasized. More important is how many minorities actually acquire a degree. When unqualified students were admitted on the basis of race, the results proved disastrous.

• Only 58 percent of African-American students from the freshman classes entering Berkeley between 1987 and 1990 managed to complete their degree requirements within six years.

• The figure for Hispanics was 67 percent -- both far below the 84 percent completion rate for whites.

Now that preference policies have been discarded, graduation rates for both minority groups should soar, analysts predict. Extrapolating with the assistance of other data, analysts can forecast what those rates should be.

• Experts say that under the new admissions system the number of blacks eventually graduating statewide should increase by a solid 19 percent.

• Graduation rates for Hispanics are expected to climb 17 percent.

• Thus, the total number of blacks graduating would still be about the same as under preferences -- even though fewer were admitted this year -- while the number for Hispanics should increase about 5 percent.

Source: Stephan Thernstrom and Abigail Thernstrom, "The Consequences of Colorblindness," Wall Street Journal, April 7, 1998.