Trade

Some Strong Export Sectors

The raw statistics on the United States' international trade balances remain distinctly negative, raising questions about our product competitiveness, says Richard J. Mahoney of the Center for the Study of American Business.

  • In the years 1991 through 1996, the United States had a negative merchandise balance (produced goods) of $742 billion.

  • The trade balance was negative in each year of the period and peaked at $183 billion in net imports in 1996.

But raw statistics on trade balances can be a misleading measure of "competitiveness," says Mahoney. Many other factors are at work like federal spending-induced debt and its related currency impact, relative strength of U.S. trading partners' economies, trade barriers, oil prices and other issues.

Nonetheless, in some sectors America has a trade positive -- that is, exports exceed imports -- pointing directly to areas of sustainable national economic strength. For example, in the 1991 to 1996 period:

  • The U.S. had a positive trade balance of $145 billion in airplanes and parts; $115 billion in chemicals; $42 billion in scientific instruments; and $29 billion in specialized industrial machinery (see figure).

  • The positive trade balance in agricultural products was about $125 billion during the period -- led by corn, soybeans and wheat, which accounted for $91 billion of the agricultural surplus.

  • Indeed, the value of net agricultural exports alone equaled about one-half of U.S. oil imports of $245 billion during the period.

Without these trade-positive industries, our trade balance in produced goods would have been 40 percent worse, says Mahoney.

Each $100,000 of exports generates one new American job paying a premium above the national average wage, according to the Institute for International Economics.

Source: Richard J. Mahoney, "Trade Winds or Head Winds? U.S. Government Export Policy," CEO Series Issue No. 19, December 1997, Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, Campus Box 1027, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, Mo. 63130, (314) 935-5630.  



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