At the time of its passage, opponents of the North American Free Trade Agreement prophesied that demolishing trade barriers with Mexico would result in a massive loss of U.S. jobs. Or at least, northern states would lose jobs as U.S. manufacturers set up shop in states bordering Mexico.

Recent evidence suggests it has not worked out that way.

• From 1992 to 1996, total manufacturing employment in Illinois, Michigan, New York and Ohio increased by about 80,000 jobs -- and employers there are crying out for more workers.

• But many Mexican manufacturers have moved their operations north from Mexico City to spots along the U.S. border to cut down on export shipping costs -- which is not a major consideration for U.S. manufacturers whose exports to Mexico play a much smaller role in the U.S. economy.

• Largely as a result of NAFTA, Mexican exports to the U.S. jumped from about $27 billion in 1990 to more than $48 billion in 1995.

As trade with the U.S. surged over the past decade, Mexican manufacturing jobs have moved north. By 1993, Mexico City's share of the country's manufacturing work force had fallen to about 28 percent. By contrast, the northern border states had about 30 percent of the national total -- up from roughly 21 percent in 1980.