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In the wake of Mexico's 1994 peso crisis, some economists are revising their view of why people stage a run on a country's currency, forceing it to abandon a fixed rate of exchange with stronger currencies, such as U.S. dollars. Previously economists thought that if a country pursued bad economic policies, people would pull their funds out and rush to greener pastures elsewhere. But Mexico had been making great strides in reforming its economy at the time of the monetary crisis. Two new studies from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggest alternative explanations. A study by Michael Bordo and Anna Schwartz reviewed 19 historical currency crises, starting in the early 18th Century.
In another NBER study, Robert Flood and Nancy Marion focus on Mexico. They believe that when economists review a country's "fundamentals" they err by not including politics.
Indeed, it was finally forced to abandon its fixed exchange rate after depleting its currency reserves in a vain effort to prop up the peso. Source: Perspective, "How Money Gets Hot," Investor's Business Daily, May 16, 1997. |
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