National Center for Policy Analysis

MONTH IN REVIEW

Crime
September, 1996

CLINTON, DOLE PROPOSE JUVENILE JUSTICE REFORMS

Juvenile crime is an issue in the presidential campaign, although the federal role in juvenile justice is largely limited to funding state programs and pushing for state action.

Almost all juvenile offenders are dealt with in state courts, while the federal government has no juvenile justice system.
Only 182 juveniles in the country are being held on federal charges, and all but a handful are actually jailed in state facilities, with costs reimbursed by the federal government.
But the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, a unit of the U.S. Department of Justice, spends about $164 million annually on research and crime prevention programs.

The OJJDP also administers mandates Congress imposes on the states as a condition of federal aid. These prohibit the states from detaining children for such offenses as truancy and from incarcerating juveniles in the same facilities as adults. They also require the states to address the issue of excessive minority populations in detention systems.

Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole has proposed replacing the OJJDP with an Office of Juvenile Accountability. The new office would receive funding of $2.5 billion over five years, 80 percent of which would go to the investigation, prosecution and detention of juveniles -- and the collection and distribution of their criminal records. Dole also wants to kill congressional mandates on the states administered by the OJJDP.

Before resigning from the Senate earlier this year, Dole proposed a juvenile crime bill -- cosponsored by Sen. John Ashcroft (R-Mo.) -- that would give a 50 percent bonus in federal funding to states that prosecute children 14 and older accused of rape and murder as adults, and that give their prosecutors the discretion to try juveniles in adult court.

President Clinton opposes replacing the Juvenile Justice Office. He has proposed giving federal prosecutors the option to try children as adults -- when approved by top Justice Department officials -- and would increase the number of violent, gun and drug felony cases in which children could be transferred to adult court.

Source: Joe Davidson, "Clinton, Dole Getting Tough on Violent Juvenile Crime," Wall Street Journal, August 22, 1996.

For more information on Juvenile Crime, visit the NCPA's Juvenile Crime Hotline at http://www.public-policy.org/~ncpa/hotlines/hotline.html

MOST STATES IGNORING "THREE STRIKES" LAWS

Although 24 states and the federal government have so-called "three strikes and you're out" laws on their books, few are invoking them, new studies show. These laws, most of which were passed in the last three years, often mandate a life sentence for criminals who have committed three felonies.

In California, however, 16,07 people have been sentenced under the law, which has reduced the crime rate according to officials. That state's statute calls for doubling a criminal's normal sentence for a second felony and imposing a 25-years-to-life sentence for a lengthy list of third felony convictions.

California's Republican Governor Pete Wilson credits the law with lowering the crime rate "precipitously." Since the law went into effect in 1994, the state's crime index has dropped 13 percent overall, with a 14.7 percent decline for homicides.

In at least six states with such laws, no one has yet been convicted under the statutes and in five others there have only been three or fewer convictions.
Similarly, only nine criminals have been sentenced under the federal law.
Experts explain that one reason the laws are not being enforced is that all of the states that passed the law already had similar legislation requiring some form of enhanced penalties for habitual felons.

Besides California, the only other state with more than a handful of convictions is Washington, with 66.

Source: Fox Butterfield, " 'Three Strikes' Rarely Invoked in Courtrooms," New York Times, September 10, 1996.

For more information on Crime, visit the NCPA's Crime page at http://www.public-policy.org/~ncpa/pi/crime/crime.html

PRESIDENT'S GUN-CONTROL FIGURES DISPUTED

Political observers have questioned President Clinton's claims of success for the Brady Handgun Bill.

At the Chicago Democratic convention he claimed that "we stopped 60,000 felons, fugitives and stalkers from getting hand-guns under the Brady bill" -- changing the figure in a later speech to 100,000.

But critics claim that both figures are misleading since denying 60,000 permission to buy a hand-gun at a specific store is not the same as preventing them form getting the weapon at any store, or by other means.
A recent national survey of police chiefs found that 85 percent believed that the Brady Act has not prevented any criminal from obtaining a hand-gun from illegal sources in his jurisdiction.
In the first 15 months of the new law, federal prosecutors locked away only three convicted felons for carrying hand-guns.

The president of the National Association of Chiefs of Police has estimated that it would require at least 10 million hours a year of law enforcement time to enforce the Brady Act.

The General Accounting Office found that the vast majority of those being denied handgun purchased do not have a history of violence. Many applications are rejected for administrative reasons, such as paperwork snafus, or traffic or minor drug violations.

Source: James Bovard (Competitive Enterprise Institute), "Clinton's Gun Hoax," Wall Street Journal, September 17, 1996.

TIMING THE COMING CRIME WAVE

Enjoy the present drop in crime, experts warn, because crime rates are going to explode in the not too distant future. That's because the number of youths who are in their prime crime years is going to escalate.

Here is the temporary good news, from the latest National Crime Victimization Survey:

Violent crime was down 9.1 percent in 1995 from 1994.
Rape dropped 18 percent and robbery fell 13.5 percent.
Aggravated assault declined 18.9 percent, while purse-snatching and pick pocketing fell 17.5 percent.

But the demographics are against law-abiding Americans.

People are most likely to commit crime between the ages of 15 and 24, with 19-year-olds the worst offenders.
In 1995, there were 69 million Americans under age 18.
But by 2010 there will be 74 million juveniles.
Out-of-wedlock birth rates continue relentlessly upward -- from 31 percent of all births in 1993 to 32.6 percent in 1994.

Criminologists warn that those headed for their worst crime years are more violent and crime prone than any group this century. They are more racially and ethnically diverse, more likely to come from single-parent homes and more likely to be urban and poor.

If juvenile arrest rates hold steady from 1992 to 2010, violent crime would grow by 22 percent over the period.
But if they grow at the same rate they have over the last decade, violent crime would more than double.

Source: Editorial, "Crime: Good News, Bad News & Worse," Investor's Business Daily, September 20, 1996.

DOING TIME, NOT CRIME

Crimes against people and property would be substantially higher today if the nation had not gotten tougher on criminals in recent years, according to a recent study by Steven D. Levitt published this May in The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

The nationwide incarceration rate nearly tripled between 1973 and 1994, and the U.S. now imprisons seven times as many people relative to population as the average European country does.
Violent crime would be about 70 percent higher today if our prison population had not increased since 1973 -- and property crimes would be about 50 percent more frequent.
For each 1,000-inmate increase in the prison population, these annual reductions in crime will follow: four murders, 53 rapes, 1,200 assaults, 1,100 robberies, 2,600 burglaries, 9,200 larcenies and 700 auto thefts.
On average, about 15 crimes per year are eliminated for each additional prisoner per year locked up.

And benefits far outweigh costs.

The average criminal free to roam the streets does about $53,900 damage to society each year.
The annual cost of incarceration is about $30,000 per prisoner.
This yields an average net benefit of $23,900 per year for each criminal behind bars.

Source: Steve H. Hanke (Johns Hopkins University), "Incarceration is a Bargain," Wall Street Journal, September 23, 1996.

PRISONERS ON LITIGATION BINGE

The Prison Litigation Reform Act, signed into law earlier this year, aims to stop frivolous prisoner lawsuits and rein in judges who have been micromanaging the prison system. But legal observers contend the Department of Justice is undermining the new law.

In fiscal 1995, prisoners filed 63,550 civil lawsuits contesting prison conditions -- far more than the 45,788 federal criminal prosecutions initiated that year.
These suits are often ludicrous, including one for $1 million by a prisoner who claims he was served melted ice cream.
Other suits included one for damages because a piece of cake was "hacked up" and another demanded premium foot gear.
Each year the states spend about $81 million battling such cases -- winning 95 percent of them early in litigation.

To reduce the number of frivolous suits, PLRA requires prisoners to pay a fee for filing any suit, and penalizes prisoners who file frivolous suits with the loss of their "good time" credits toward early release. It also gives judges an expedited process to screen out frivolous suits before trial.

The PLRA was also designed to tackle an even more significant problem -- judges' seizure of control over prison systems.

A federal judge in Philadelphia had been overseeing the releases of up to 600 criminal defendants per week because he deemed the prisons overcrowded.
Thousands of the released prisoners have been arrested for new crimes -- including, in one 18-month period, 79 murders, 90 rapes, 959 robberies, 2,215 drug-dealing charges, 701 burglaries, 2,748 thefts and 1,113 assaults.

The PLRA was supposed to stop such outrages by forcing judges to prove conditions in prisons violated federal law and requiring them to give due regard to public safety in determining remedies. However, top Justice Department officials seem intent on undermining the law with ridiculous interpretations they are urging on courts.

They have filed briefs, for example, urging judges to retain the power to specify that only licensed barbers cut prisoners' hair.
Observers say the Department inverts the PLRA requirement that existing decrees be automatically stayed 30 days after a motion to end one has been filed.
Justice says this means only that judges should examine the issue within 30 days and decide it if possible.
In addition, Justice argues that judges can and should keep the decrees in place while they investigate whether the prison has ever violated any constitutional provision.

Thus, even if no constitutional violation was found in the first place, the judge is encouraged to keep control over prison conditions indefinitely -- precisely what Congress intended the PLRA to stop.

Four days after Clinton signed the PLRA, Justice officials indicated the Department would sue Maryland's governor to ensure that prisoners have sufficient opportunity to socialize with one another and get enough outdoor exercise.

Source: Sen. Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.), "Tough on Crime? Not the Clinton Justice Department," Wall Street Journal, September 25, 1996.

THE SILENCE OF THE WITNESSES

Witnesses to homicides are not reporting what they saw to authorities, police say, and this is contributing to a dramatic decline in cases cleared each year.

While the number of homicides nationally rose from 13,650 in 1968 to 24,305 in 1994, the rate for clearing cases dropped from 86 percent to 64 percent.
Officials say that "witness intimidation" is the primary reason the closure rate has dropped so dramatically.
Witnesses are not coming forward either because they are fearful of retribution, they are adhering to a street "code of silence" or prefer to take revenge themselves.

One criminologist reported that letters had been found written by people in jail instructing gang members to kill witnesses.

Another official says that 90 percent of homicides are witnessed by someone.

Source: Gary Fields, "Silent Witnesses Stymie Police in Homicides," USA Today, September 24, 1996.