Government and Politics

Testing Census Methods in Sacramento

Because its ethnic diversity mirrors the rest of the nation, Census Bureau officials have been using Sacramento, Calif., to test statistical sampling methods. Statistical sampling is a complex estimating method that even local census officials reportedly have difficulty grasping.

Republicans contend sampling opens the door to political chicanery through overestimates of certain types and classes of citizens. Legal experts object to the process on the grounds that the Constitution calls for "an actual enumeration," or head count, of every U.S. resident.

Sampling involves reaching 90 percent of homes and estimating the numbers and types of people in the remaining 10 percent of households.

  • Of the 173,691 questionnaires mailed to Sacramento households in March, only 53.7 percent were returned before last month's deadline.

  • Responses were as low as 25.7 percent in some census tracts and as high as 76.5 percent in others.

  • More than 650 enumerators are pursuing those who did not return their forms.

  • It is estimated that 3 percent of Sacramento's population was missed in the 1990 census.

Nationally, the census missed 10 million people in 1990 and counted 6 million people twice. The final count was thought to be off by 4 million.

The Census Bureau predicts that using the traditional head count -- expected to be 250 million in 2000 -- will miss about 5 million people.

Source: Haya El Nasser, "Census Experiments in California," USA Today, June 5, 1998.

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