Government and Politics Issues

Is Census Sampling Suspect?

The Clinton administration wants to use statistical sampling rather than an actual count in compiling the 2000 census. But House Republicans are suing to stop sampling -- contending it would violate the Constitution's requirement of an "actual enumeration" of the U.S. population.

Experts generally agree the census has been undercounting the population in the past six decades -- with minorities particularly vulnerable to noninclusion. On the other hand, when it attempted to adjust for the undercount in 1990, the Census Bureau overestimated those not counted by one million and did not discover the error for a year. (The Secretary of Commerce kept the estimated figures from being used in 1990.)

  • In 1990, the undercount rate for the entire population was 1.8 percent, the Census Bureau believes, and 5.7 percent for blacks.

  • The undercount first became apparent in 1940, when 13 percent more black men showed up for the draft than that year's census had counted.

  • Experts try to estimate the undercount by using birth and death certificates and immigration records.

For the 2000 census, once the Census Bureau believes it has reached 90 percent of the population, it plans to estimate the remaining 10 percent through statistical sampling. The bureau will take another sample of 750,000 households and use those figures to try to correct for both doublecounting and undercounting.

One problem, even the bureau agrees, regards data at the individual census-block level -- which is extensively used by government and business. In a letter to Investor's Business Daily, a bureau official wrote, "It is impossible to tell beforehand whether the adjusted or unadjusted count will be more accurate."

Source: John Berlau, "Will You Be Counted in 2000?" Investor's Business Daily, July 8, 1998.

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