Opinion Editorial | |
| Wednesday, April 21, 1999 | |
Military Decline Puts U.S. In A Bind |
The war in Yugoslavia is already shaping up as one of the most poorly planned conflicts in American history. As a consequence, defense officials are scrambling to pull together the resources needed to sustain our operations there. Unfortunately, they are bumping up against severe limits resulting from the drastic deterioration of U.S. military capability during the Clinton Administration. In just fiscal year 1998 alone the Defense Department lost the following assets.
In real terms, adjusted for inflation, defense spending has fallen every year of the Clinton Administration thus far, from $298.4 billion in 1992 to $236.6 billion last year (in 1992 dollars). While some of this was due to cutbacks in strategic arms resulting from the end of the Cold War, much also came out of conventional forces--guns, bombs, bullets, personnel. Moreover, increasing amounts of defense spending have been diverted into non-military operations, such as environmental cleanup. As a consequence, we are now finding the shelves are nearly empty, with many items needed to sustain combat operations in short supply.
But resupplying our armed forces is not a simple matter. The production lines for many weapons have been shut down. It is not possible, for example, to quickly replace the F-117 Stealth fighter that was lost because they are no longer being manufactured. The same is true of air-launched cruise missiles, which have been heavily used so far in Yugoslavia.
Of course, production lines can be re-opened. But the engineers and other skilled workers needed to operate those lines are no longer available, neither are the specialized suppliers. Nor would it necessarily make sense to restart production on many weapons systems because although they are still in use, they are obsolete. New generations of weapons will have to be designed and built before it makes sense to resume their production.
The Pentagon has already asked for an additional $4 billion this year to pay for the Yugoslavia operation. But any escalation will increase this cost quickly. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the air campaign at current levels costs $1 billion per month to sustain. If ground troops are introduced, it will cost $300 million month per division to keep them supplied. Even a negotiated settlement will be costly. A force of 4,000 peacekeeping troops, consistent with the Rambouillet agreement, would cost $50 million per month.
However, even if the Yugoslavia conflict ends soon, it has exposed serious weaknesses in U.S. military strength that will have to be rectified. And rectifying them may cost far more than it would to have maintained our strength all along. That means that the next president is going to face the same problem Ronald Reagan faced in 1981, when confronted by the defense cuts of the Carter years. Big defense spending increases will be necessary, necessitating politically unpopular cuts in domestic programs or a return to deficit spending.
In short, Bill Clinton's emasculation of the Defense Department is going to sandbag his successor, regardless of who it is. We can only hope that that person has the political will to do what is necessary in the face of inevitable opposition.
Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, April 21, 1999.
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