Warming Caused by Natural Cycle, Not Humans

NCPA Adjunct Scholars Avery and Singer Outline Unstoppable Climate in New Book


DALLAS - Human activities have little to do with the Earth's current warming trend, according to a new book by Denis Avery and Fred Singer, Adjunct Scholars with the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA).  In fact, the book concludes that global warming and cooling seem to be part of a 1,500-year cycle of moderate temperature swings.  Coming out as the leadership of Congress shifts, the book - "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years - builds on research the two previously outlined in an NCPA study.

"The evidence supporting a 1,500- year cycle is too great to dismiss," said S. Fred Singer, co-author of the book, professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia and president of the Science and Environment Policy Project.  "Evidence from every continent and ocean confirms the 1,500-year cycle," added Dennis Avery, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and the book's other co-author.

According to Avery and Singer, within the 90,000-year Ice Age cycles, the Earth also experiences 1,500-year warming-cooling cycles. The current warming began about 1850 and will possibly continue for another 500 years. Their findings are drawn from physical evidence of past climate cycles that have been documented by researchers around the world from tree rings and ice cores, stalagmites and dust plumes, prehistoric villages and collapsed cultures, fossilized pollen and algae skeletons, titanium profiles and niobium ions, and other sources. 

Considered collectively, the author's findings are clear and convincing evidence of a 1,500-year climate cycle.  And if the current warming trend is part of a natural cycle, then actions to prevent further warming would be futile, could impose substantial costs upon the global economy and lessen the ability of the world's peoples to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

"Are human activities, including the burning of fossil fuel, the primary or even significant cause of the current warming trend?  The scientifically appropriate answer - cautious and conforming to the facts - is probably not," the authors said.

The book is published by Rowman and Littlefield and is available through book sellers such as Amazon.com.