NCPA - Daily Policy Digest - Scholars Consider Factors which Win Military Battles

NATIONAL CENTER FOR POLICY ANALYSIS
/ / / /

Scholars Consider Factors which Win Military Battles

Researchers in Germany and elsewhere have been studying the factors which led to victory on the battlefields in more than 600 historic conflicts. Ralph Rotte of the University of Technology in Aachen, Germany, and Christopher Schmidt, president of the Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research, in Essen, Germany, have come to some conclusions, at least one of which is surprising. Among their findings:

A major determinant of victory is which side has more troops.

Other important factors include having superior intelligence and the element of surprise, along with high troop morale and superior leaders.

The surprising finding is that these factors count for more in the long run than superior technology.

For example, American technology was far superior to the enemy's in Vietnam -- but that was not enough for victory.

It remains to be seen whether technological superiority will emerge as a dominant factor in 21st century conflicts -- where precision-guided munitions, stealth bombers and thermal imaging are available.

Source: Alan B. Krueger (Princeton University), "Economic Scene: Military Manpower and Leadership Are Pluses, But Battles Are Hard to Predict," New York Times, February 6, 2003; based on Ralph Rotte and Christopher Schmidt, "On the Production of Victory: Empirical Determinants of Battlefield Success in Modern War."

For text
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/business/06SCEN.html

For RWI
http://www.rwi-essen.de

For more on War, Terrorism & WMDs
http://www.ncpa.org/iss/ter/

12770 Coit Rd., Suite 800 - Dallas, TX 75251-1339 - 972/386-6272 - Fax 972/386-0924
601 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Suite 900 South Building - Washington, DC 20004 - 202/220-3082 - Fax 202/220-3096
Copyright © 2002 National Center for Policy Analysis - All rights reserved.