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In a recent column, I defended supply-side economics from an attack by Princeton
economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times Magazine. One of the rare civil
criticisms I got came from my friends at TAPPED, the web log of the liberal
American Prospect magazine. Their point is that Krugman was justified in his
attack because supply-siders have no academic allies, despite a large number of
conservative economics professors. "Supply-side ideas simply won't stand up
under scrutiny," TAPPED wrote.
As it happens, around the time I was reading this blog entry, I had on my desk a
recent paper from the International Monetary Fund, "An Analysis of the
Underground Economy and Its Macroeconomic Consequences." Right on page
one it has this to say: "Our model simulations show that in the absence of
budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms
into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base."
In other words, the Laffer Curve works--and this from an organization hardly
known as a hotbed of supply-side economics. Nor is this the only instance in
which the IMF has acknowledged fundamental truths about supply-side
economics.
- As long ago as 1987, it published an entire book entitled, Supply-
Side Tax Policy: Its Relevance to Developing Countries.
- In 1997, it published a paper on Social Security reform in France
that contained this finding: "The simulation results…. point to the presence of
'self-financing,' whereby reductions in various tax rates lead to lower budget
deficits in the long run, as the result of an expanding tax base and lower
unemployment insurance outlays."
- In 1999, it held a seminar on trade policy that came to this
conclusion: "A number of countries maintain tariff rates that exceed revenue
maximizing levels. These countries could liberalize, at least initially, without
significant adverse consequences for revenues from trade taxes."
The IMF is not alone in its acknowledgement of supply-side truths. Across the
street, the World Bank has done similar studies. In 1993, one of them came to
this conclusion: "Above a certain level of the official tariff rate, further increases
in the official rate produces no increase (and there is some evidence of a decrease)
in the collected rate."
Even though supply-siders often criticize Bank and Fund policies, the fact is that
they are more receptive to their ideas than universities because they have to
operate in the real world. Every day, they see the consequences of excessive tax
rates in operation in countries that need revenue a lot more than feel-good
redistributionist policies. They can't afford to overtax the rich or they will just
move or bribe the tax officials to leave them alone. Either way, the government
doesn't get any tax revenue to spend on pressing social needs.
Furthermore, Bank and Fund officials have seen with their own eyes the impact of
low marginal tax rates in places like Russia, where implementation of a 13
percent flat tax in 2001 led to a significant increase in government revenue.
Although rates were much higher under the old system, evasion was so pervasive
that little revenue was actually collected. Under the new system, it was no longer
worth as much to risk punishment for evasion, leading to increased compliance
and higher revenues.
Okay, my friends at TAPPED might say, but what about academia? Isn't supply-
side economics still ignored there? The answer is no. A good example is Nobel
Prize winning economist Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago. After many
years of dismissing supply-side economics in much the same way TAPPED does,
he finally took a serious look at it. In a 1990 article in the Oxford Economic
Papers, he admitted that he had been wrong, that reducing taxes on capital could
in fact deliver a huge economic windfall, just as the supply-siders had argued.
Said Prof. Lucas, "The supply-side economists, if that is the right term for those
whose research I have been discussing, have delivered the largest genuinely free
lunch I have seen in 25 years in this business, and I believe we would have a
better society if we followed their advice."
Earlier this year, Prof. Lucas reiterated support for supply-side policies in his
presidential address to the American Economic Association. He compared
supply-side economics with Keynesian stabilization policies and found the former
far superior to the latter. "The potential gains from improved stabilization
policies are on the order of hundredths of a percent of consumption, perhaps two
orders of magnitude smaller than the potential benefits of available 'supply-side'
fiscal reforms," he concluded.
Space prohibits the presentation of further evidence, of which there is ample.
Suffice it to say that supply-side economics is far from the academic outcast its
enemies wish it was.
Bruce Bartlett is a Senior Fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis.
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