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Just before Christmas, workers at IBM got an early lump of coal in their stockings.
The company announced plans to ship some 5,000 software-programming jobs to
India . Although the trend toward outsourcing or offshoring has been going
on for some time, the IBM announcement got people's attention. New York
Times columnist Bob Herbert complained that globalization is now forcing
white-collar service workers to follow "the well-trodden path of their
factory brethren to lower-wage work, or the unemployment line."
Ironically, much of the move toward offshoring is the result of ill-considered
efforts to keep software jobs in the U.S. Previously, companies had brought
Indian programmers to this country to do their work under a program established
in 1990. It provided these foreign workers with H-1B visas that allowed them
to work here temporarily. But under pressure to save such jobs for the native-born,
the number of visas allowed under this program was reduced from 195,000 to
65,000 in October.
So now, instead of having Indian workers come here, where they spent much
of their earnings, companies are contracting with them to work in India , which
is where they now spend their earnings. Rather than admit that they were wrong
in the first place, the same people who demanded restrictions on foreign workers
are trying to get new limits placed on outsourcing as well. A new report from
the National Foundation for American Policy (nfap.net) details this effort
and the likely costs. These include higher taxes when laws are passed preventing
state and local governments from utilizing cheaper foreign sources for information
technology (IT) services.
Pressure is being placed on private companies as well. Dell Computer and Lehman
Brothers both recently announced that they were closing some of their Indian
operations and bringing back jobs that were previously outsourced. Reuters
reports that many big companies now resist admitting that they are even looking
into outsourcing for fear of a political backlash. As a result, these companies
may now be depriving investors of important information on their cost-cutting
efforts.
The truth is that outsourcing is far less of a threat to American workers
than they imagine, and there are significant benefits for the U.S. economy.
For starters, there is not a one-for-one relationship between jobs lost here
and those gained elsewhere from outsourcing. Boston University researcher Nitin
Joglekar has found that outsourcing of IT services typically leads to domestic
job losses of less than 20 percent. In other words, for every 100 jobs outsourced
to India only 20 are lost here.
A study by the
McKinsey Global Institute found that workers freed up from routine tasks that
have been outsourced are often redeployed within the company in projects generating
greater value-added and jobs paying higher wages. It also found that companies
engaging in outsourcing often established foreign subsidiaries that generate
sales and profits for the home company. Adding it all up, McKinsey concluded
that every $1 outsourced led to a gain for the U.S. as a whole of $1.12 to
$1.14. The country where the outsourcing takes place captures just 33 cents
of the total gain from outsourcing.
Even this greatly underestimates the gain to the U.S. from outsourcing because
it doesn't fully account for the ways in which businesses will be able to improve
the quality of their products and take advantage of new opportunities presented
by outsourcing. A new study by
Catherine Mann of the Institute for International Economics (iie.com) looks
at some of these dynamic effects. She notes that globalization of computer
hardware manufacturing led to a 10 percent to 30 percent decline in prices.
This made such equipment more affordable and led to a far greater increase
in jobs in the long run than were lost initially when production went abroad.
Ms. Mann believes that lower costs resulting from outsourcing of services
will lead to comparable dynamic gains in the U.S. She says globalization of
IT services "will yield even stronger job demand in the United States
for workers with IT proficiency and skills." Indeed, she notes that overall
employment in job classifications most impacted by IT service outsourcing is
in fact rising, not falling.
Other studies also find domestic benefits from outsourcing. For example, companies
are able to provide round-the-clock service for their customers globally. They
have also found that small firms and new startups gain more from outsourcing
than large corporations. The latter have managerial structures that make it
hard for them to take full advantage of outsourcing's benefits. Smaller companies
and those just established can organize themselves more easily to utilize outsourcing
and thereby gain sales and better compete in today's global marketplace.
I don't expect the protectionists and nativists to stop complaining about
outsourcing. Nevertheless, the benefits to U.S. workers and the U.S. economy
greatly outweigh the costs.
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