|
On Jan. 23, 1996, Bill Clinton told the nation, "The era of big government is
over." If so, it sure didn't last very long. Today, the era of big government is
back with a vengeance, ushered in by a massive new prescription drug
entitlement, a pork-laden energy bill of grotesque proportions, and a trade war
with China. What few people, including myself, ever thought would happen was
that this new era of big government would be implemented by Republicans
controlling both Congress and the White House. It makes me long for the good
old days of gridlock.
In his new book, In an Uncertain World, former Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin
extols the Clinton Administration's fiscal record. He correctly notes that the
federal budget deficit was close to $300 billion when Mr. Clinton took office and
had a surplus of more that $200 billion when he left. Nowhere in the book,
however, does he credit the Republican Congress, which was elected in 1994, for
the turnaround.
On the contrary, Mr. Rubin's book is filled with disdain for Republicans,
especially Newt Gingrich, who blocked Clinton Administration initiatives at
every turn. And of course, Mr. Clinton returned the favor by blocking Republican
initiatives, with the notable exceptions of welfare reform in 1996 and a tax cut in
1997.
Yet it was the combination of the two--a Democratic White House and a
Republican Congress--that was really responsible for the budgetary turnaround.
Each side was checked from enacting new spending programs. The result was
that the budget was virtually on automatic pilot for most of the Clinton
Administration. In other words, we have gridlock to thank for the fiscal
turnaround, not Mr. Clinton's leadership, which mostly involved sticking his
finger in the wind to see which way the polls were blowing.
Mr. Rubin would also have us believe that the Clinton Administration's fiscal
policy is what led to the economic boom of the 1990s, primarily by bringing
down interest rates. But the record tells us that rates didn't really fall until
Republicans took control of Congress. In that month, long-term interest rates
actually were higher than they had been when Bill Clinton took office. The
Treasury's 30-year bond rate was 7.34 percent in Jan. 1993 and 8.08 percent in
Nov. 1994. It was while Democrats and Republicans cohabitated in running the
federal government that we really saw rates decline and the economy take off.
This is not surprising, given that Wall Street has long favored gridlock. Indeed, a
number of economic conservatives suggested in 2000 that the best electoral
outcome for the growth and the stock market would be Al Gore as president with
Republicans continuing to control Congress. As financial columnist Daniel
Kadlec wrote, "The Dow has fared best when one party has controlled the White
House and the other has controlled Congress, the optimum formula being a
Democratic president and a Republican Congress. That combo has produced
Dow gains, excluding dividends, of 10.7 percent a year."
Voters also have demonstrated a preference for gridlock time and again. Since
World War II, we have had divided government almost two-thirds of the time.
And according to what they tell pollsters, this has been a conscious, deliberate
action. In the latest survey by Hart/Teeter for the Wall Street Journal and NBC
News, 62 percent of Americans said they preferred Congress and the presidency
to be controlled by different parties. Only 29 percent said that it would be better
if one party controlled both.
The only people who really oppose gridlock are political scientists and party
activists, who decry it as a barrier to "getting things done." A new book by
Brookings Institution scholar Sarah Binder, Stalemate, lays out the case against
gridlock on these grounds.
The problem is that getting things done is usually a bad thing. All of our nation's
entitlement programs, for example, were enacted when one party controlled all
the elected bodies of the federal government. Social Security came under
Franklin Roosevelt and a Democratic Congress in the 1930s, Medicare under
Lyndon Johnson and a Democratic Congress in the 1960s, and now a prescription
drug entitlement under George Bush and a Republican Congress. Our
grandchildren's grandchildren will be paying higher taxes for this latest elderly
vote-buying scheme when everyone who supported it is long dead.
The simplest way of restoring gridlock would be to elect a Democrat as president
next year. Unfortunately, the one most likely to get the nomination, Howard
Dean, is doing everything he can to turn off conservative voters disgusted with
Republican budgetary profligacy and trade protection. Last week, for example, he
proposed re-regulating the American economy. Sadly, with most political
analysts forecasting continued Republican control of the House and Senate, the
prospects for a return to gridlock look dim.
Bruce Bartlett is a Senior Fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis.
|