Contrary to a number of myths, the Third World (especially outside preindustrial Africa) has accumulated a far better growth record over the past half-century than did most of Europe in the 19th century.

The Myth of Low Industrial Growth. By historical standards, economic growth in the Third World during the past three decades has been spectacular. Per capita income for the Third World as a whole has grown more than 3 percent per year - three times faster than in Western Europe during the 19th century.

Still, the gap in living standards is widening. The reason can be illustrated. If a country with income per person of $100 grows by 10 percent and a country with income per person of $1,000 grows by 2 percent, the gap between the countries widens by $10 per person after one year. Thus the gap in living standards between rich and poor countries will continue to grow well into the next century.

The Myth of Population Explosion. The Third World birth rate is not enormous by historical standards. For example, the birth rate in England in 1821 was 40.8 per thousand, not much lower than the 42.5 per thousand in East Asia in 1950. The birth rate in the United States in 1820 was 55.2 per thousand, higher than anywhere in the Third World in 1950. The reason for the more rapid rate of population growth lies with the death rate. Life expectancies are far greater in the Third World today than they were in England in the early 19th century. And birth rates are likely to fall in the future. Demographers have already discovered a decline in much of the Third World, first in Latin America and now in Asia.

The Myth of Food Shortages. Although many people believe that famines in the Third World are caused by recent population surges, mass starvation in Asia and Africa has a long history. Rather than increasing, famines have actually disappeared from much of the world. Where they are still found, they are almost invariably due to a distribution problem rather than a shortage of food.

As so many developing nations deal with debt crises, population problems, polluted cities, inequality and temporary economic setbacks, it is important to remember that the 19th century industrializing countries experienced the same growing pains. Despite these problems, the Third World has done very well by the standards of history.

Source: Jeffrey G. Williamson, "How Tough Are Times in the Third World?" in Donald N. McCloskey, ed., Second Thoughts: Myths and Morals of U.S. Economic History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).

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