Nationally, the crime rate has dropped 8 percent over the last three years. This overall decrease is due in large part to dramatic drops in crime in those states that have increased prison capacity and tightened guidelines for parole, thereby increasing the length of time criminals spend behind bars.

Texas, which suffered from a 29 percent increase in the rate of serious crime during the 1980s, is a good example of the dramatic improvement in the 1990s:

• The overall rate of serious crime has been cut by 35 percent and now is the lowest since 1973.

• Compared to 1991, the lower crime rate means that 1,140 fewer Texans will be murdered in 1996 and 450,000 fewer crimes against persons and property will be reported to the police.

• The sharp decline reflects a four-year building boom that has raised prison capacity from 49,000 to 150,000.

• The state's prison population per 100,000 residents has increased from close to the national average to 64 percent above the national average, the highest in the nation.

• The average (mean) time served for all serious crimes, 1.9 years in 1990, climbed to 3 years by 1994.

• Whereas prisoners released in 1990 served 20 percent of their sentences on the average, those released in 1994 served 28 percent on the average.

Another reason why Texas prisoners are spending more time in prison is that far fewer prisoners considered for parole are actually paroled. In 1990, 79.4 percent of prisoners considered for parole received approval, whereas in 1994 only 22.3 percent received approval.

Primarily because of the longer sentences actually served per crime, expected punishment in Texas has risen in recent years. Expected punishment is the amount of prison time criminals can expect to serve, given the probabilities of being apprehended, convicted and sent to prison and given the median sentences served per crime.

• The expected punishment for serious crimes rose from 8.2 days in 1988 to 10.5 days in 1991 and then to 33.2 days in 1994, a fourfold increase over six years.

• Expected punishment rose 360 percent for murder (24 months to 9.2 years) and 266 percent for rape (5.3 months to 19.4 months).

• Overall, the expected punishment for a crime of violence is 168 days and for a property crime 8.7 days.

Despite these improvements, Texas still has a serious crime problem. More than 250,000 Texans are victims of violent crimes each year and more than 2 million are victims of property crime.

Source:: Morgan O. Reynolds, "Crime and Punishment in Texas: Update," NCPA Policy Report No. 202, January 1996, National Center for Policy Analysis, 12770 Coit Rd., Suite 800, Dallas, TX 75251, (972) 386-6272.

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