Is the earth running out of natural resources and the ability to feed its population? One doomsday theorist said, "Our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us." That lament came from the theologian Tertullian - in the second century.

The same claims are heard today. Yet prices, which are a good indicator of scarcity or plenty, offer contradicting evidence:

• Relative to wages, prices for all natural resources in the United States in 1990 were only one-half what they were in 1950 and just one-fifth the 1900 price.

• An index of 13 important metals and minerals shows a net decline of 31 percent in real prices from 1980 to 1990.

• Oil prices have fallen 35 percent in constant dollars since 1980, and when indexed to U.S. wages have fallen more than 40 percent.

The consensus of demographers is that global population, now at 5.7 billion, will level off at between 8 billion and 12 billion. Can that number be fed? One agronomist estimated that simply using water more efficiently in the less developed nations of Africa, Asia and South America would solve the problem.

• With yields less than one-half the present average in the U.S. cornbelt, the arable nontropical land in those areas could produce enough to feed a world population of 18 billion.

• If the cultivable tropical land on those continents were included, they could support between 35 and 40 billion people.

Further, the emerging field of biotechnology is creating new agricultural products that allow farmers to feed more people and is making it possible to cultivate formerly unusable land.

History shows that in an atmosphere of economic freedom, human ingenuity continually enables the earth to sustain more people at higher living standards.

Source: Thomas Lambert, "Defusing the 'Population Bomb' With Free Markets," Policy Study No. 129. February 1996, Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, Campus Box 1208, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130, (314) 935-5630.

ea mj 96c