Gun control advocates frequently cite statistics indicating that a person is most likely to be killed by a friend or relative, implying that otherwise normal people can go berserk when they have a gun in their hands.

Actually, the most important determinant of whether one is likely to commit a murder or become a murder victim is whether or not one has a criminal history. That's because people who commit murder usually have a police record, as do their victims. Take Chicago, for example:

• In 1982, 66 percent of those arrested for murder and 49 percent of their victims had known criminal histories.

• By 1992, 72 percent of murderers and 66 percent of victims had criminal records.

• But, in 1993, a typical year, fewer than 3 percent of homicides involved victims in a marital relationship with the offenders and only 3 percent involved blood relatives.

These figures probably understate the criminal histories of both offenders and victims, since only about two-thirds of homicides lead to an arrest, and homicides resulting from domestic quarrels are solved at a much higher rate than those between gang members or strangers. Furthermore, an unknown proportion of both offenders and victims may have committed crimes as juveniles that were expunged from their records.

On the other hand, in 25 percent of cases the victim and offender were described by police as acquaintances but not friends, and there were a similar number of cases where no previous relationship at all between victim and offender was established.

Source: Daniel D. Polsby and Dennis Brennen, "Taking Aim at Gun Control," Policy Study No. 69, October 30, 1995, Heartland Institute, 800 E. Northwest Highway, Suite 1080, Palatine IL 60067, (708) 202-3060.