Does the practice of increasing cash welfare payments to women who have additional children give them an incentive to have more? New Jersey, the first state to end such additional payments, may provide an answer.

In 1992, New Jersey enacted a "family cap" eliminating the $44 increase in monthly benefits that went to women giving birth while receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). The cap did not affect food stamps and Medicaid. Passage of the cap and its effective date 10 months later, in August 1993, were widely publicized in the state.

Although the additional payment was only 4 percent of the total average monthly AFDC benefit, eliminating it seems to have had an effect:

• In the year before the cap, women on AFDC averaged 1,331 births per month.

• In the 16 months after the cap went into effect, they averaged 1,197 per month, a reduction of 10 percent.

• This represents a change from a monthly average of 10.96 births per 1,000 women to 9.72 births per 1,000.

Concern has been expressed that family caps may increase the rate of abortions among welfare mothers. However:

• In the year before the cap, women on AFDC averaged 984.75 abortions per month.

• In the eight months after the cap went into effect, they averaged 991.5, an increase of 0.7 percent, within the range of statistical fluctuation.

• The monthly abortion rate among women on AFDC fell from 8.1 per 1,000 in the 12 months before the cap to 8.08 per 1,000 in the eight months following, again within the range of statistical fluctuation.

Source: Robert Rector, "The Impact of New Jersey's Family Cap on Out-of-Wedlock Births and Abortions," F.Y.I., September 6, 1995, Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20002, (202) 546-4400.