THE DEBATE OVER ECONOMIC GROWTH

The debate over whether the economy will grow at a 2.3% or 2.5% rate over the next decade is frequently tied to speculation: will balancing the budget in the year 2004 require $400 billion in spending cuts, or only $200 billion?

Historically, except in the Great Depression, growth rates of 3% to 3.5% have been standard - with a 3.7% average rate from 1950 to 1973.

But from 1973 to 1994 the economy grew at a rate of only 2.4%.

This year, the economy grew at a 2.7% rate in the first quarter, but slowed to 1.1% in the second.

During the high-flying growth years 1950-73, the national debt declined to 25% of GDP from nearly 100% at the end of World War II.

At the end of fiscal 1994, it stood at 51.7%.

Some contend that to spur growth we should consider the policies of the Reagan years, when growth between 1982 and 1989 averaged 3.7% following the Reagan tax cuts.

The policy during the Reagan years was:
The Federal Reserve would use monetary policy to fight inflation.

Fiscal policy - principally cutting the highest marginal tax rates - would aim at stimulating growth.

Letting taxpayers keep more of each additional dollar of income promoted incentives to work and produce.

Since 1989, tax policy has been devoted to income redistribution and seeing that "the rich pay their fare share." And the Fed is supposed to manage both inflation and growth. Thus, supporters of Reagan-style economic management believe that having the Fed stamp out any growth above 2.5% means that long-term growth rates will be 2.5% or less.

Source: Robert L. Bartley, "Giving Up on Growth?" Wall Street Journal, September 13, 1995.



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