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Thought the Kyoto Protocol to curb global warming was dead? Think again.
At least that's what Sens. John McCain, Arizona Republican, and Joseph Lieberman,
Connecticut Democrat, were hoping. In what many thought was a Halloween trick,
the two senators tried to bring Kyoto back from the dead with a bill — the "Climate
Stewardship Act" — that sought to unilaterally impose many of Kyoto 's
restrictions. This despite the fact Kyoto had already experienced three strikes.
Let's call this 55-43 defeat strike four.
The first strike came in 1997. Both senators voted with
the rest of the Senate to unanimously tell the Clinton administration that signing
on to any climate control agreement that "could result in serious harm to
the U.S. economy, including serious job loss, trade disadvantages, increased
energy and consumer costs, or any combination thereof."
It was clear to everyone at the time that what was emerging
from Kyoto fell under this banner. Understanding this reality, the Clinton administration — which
had been chiefly responsible for negotiating the accord — promised not to submit
it to the Senate for ratification.
The second strike came when President Bush concurred
with the 1997 Senate resolution and also promised never to submit Kyoto to the
Senate. This created a little more controversy among environmental activists
because Mr. Bush also expressed skepticism about the science underlying the global-warming
theory and asserted his intention to examine alternatives to restrictions required
under Kyoto . It also created controversy because they realized he actually meant
it.
The third strike came a few weeks ago when Russian President
Vladimir Putin announced at the World Climate Change Conference in Moscow that
Russia likely will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol either, because it would prevent
him from accomplishing his goal of doubling the size of Russia 's economy in
10 years.
Even more disheartening for Kyoto 's proponents, was
Mr. Putin's statement that he doesn't believe we know why temperatures are rising,
how recent trends relate to long-term temperature variations and, above all,
whether changing human behavior would matter to any of this.
This is especially important to Kyoto supporters worldwide,
because at this point Russia can effectively veto the international treaty. The
treaty requires countries representing 55 percent of emissions to sign in order
to go into effect. Since the U.S. is not going to join, it is impossible to reach
that required percentage without Russia , which accounts for 17 percent of global
emissions.
Apparently Sens. McCain and Lieberman have forgotten
their votes back in 1997. That's the only explanation for why they are pushing
an anti-air pollution proposal that is, in effect, a back-door attempt to unilaterally
implement Kyoto 's restrictions without having to get it ratified. The bill would
have required the commercial, industrial, transportation and electrical power
sectors in the U.S. to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases to 2000 levels by 2010, and to 1990 levels by 2016.
What impact would this have had on the U.S. economy?
According to an analysis by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the
Congressional Budget Office, it would be disastrous. For example, the restrictions
would have likely increased energy costs by 30-50 percent, and reduce U.S. GDP
by $106 billion. That amounts to a tax increase of about $1,000 on every American
household.
Specifically, the proposed restrictions would drastically
reduced the use of coal. Some environmental activists would applaud this, but
it would likely eliminate more than 50,000 coal industry jobs. Not exactly a
recipe for an economic recovery. And it's not just coal. The EIA study concludes
the price of natural gas would increase 16 percent in 2010 and 46 percent in
2025.
What impact would this all have had on consumer spending,
which many acknowledge has saved the economy in recent years? The EIA study concludes: "Because
of lower real disposable income resulting from higher prices for energy, consumers
will reduce overall spending and savings. Energy services also represent a key
input in the production of goods and services. As energy prices increase, the
costs of production rise, placing upward pressure on the nominal prices of all
intermediate goods and final goods and services in the economy, with widespread
impacts on spending across many markets."
If enacting these restrictions would save the world from
environmental collapse, as many environmental activists would have us believe,
it might be worth the economic pain. One problem though, neither Kyoto nor McCain-Lieberman's
Kyoto Lite would have any impact on future global warming. According to the National
Center for Atmospheric Research, if all the signatories meet their greenhouse
gas reduction targets, the temperature difference would be so small it couldn't
be measured by ground-based temperature gauges.
Neither economics nor science support the restrictions
called for by either Kyoto or McCain-Lieberman. Despite this defeat, Mr. McCain
vows to continue bringing this back until it passes, much like he did with campaign
finance reform. Yet this is not batting practice. It's time to tell them to go
back to the bench instead of holding up the Senate because they want another
pitch.
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