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In a recent column, I defended supply-side economics
from an attack by Princeton economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times Magazine. One of the rare civil criticisms I got came from my friends
at TAPPED, the Web log of the liberal American Prospect magazine. Their point
is that Mr. Krugman was justified in his attack because supply-siders have
no academic allies, despite a large number of conservative economics
professors. "Supply-side
ideas simply won't stand up under scrutiny," TAPPED wrote. As it happens, around the time I was reading this blog
entry, I had on my desk a recent paper from the International Monetary
Fund, "An
Analysis of the Underground Economy and Its Macroeconomic Consequences." Right on Page One, it has this to say: "Our model simulations show that
in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax
rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing
the tax base." In other words, the Laffer Curve works — and this from
an organization hardly known as a hotbed of supply-side economics. Nor is this
the only instance in which the IMF has acknowledged fundamental truths about
supply-side economics. As long ago as 1987, it published an entire book
titled, "Supply-Side Tax Policy: Its Relevance to Developing Countries."
In 1997, it published a paper on Social Security
reform in France that contained this finding: "The simulation results
... point to the presence of 'self-financing,' whereby reductions in various
tax rates lead to lower budget deficits in the long run, as the result of
an expanding tax base and lower unemployment insurance outlays." In 1999, it held a seminar on trade policy that
came to this conclusion: "A number of countries maintain tariff rates
that exceed revenue maximizing levels. These countries could liberalize,
at least initially, without significant adverse consequences for revenues
from trade taxes." The IMF is not alone in its acknowledgement of supply-side
truths. Across the street, the World Bank has done similar studies. In
1993, one of them came to this conclusion: "Above a certain level
of the official tariff rate, further increases in the official rate produces
no increase (and there is some evidence of a decrease) in the collected
rate." Even though supply-siders often criticize Bank and Fund
policies, the fact is they are more receptive to supply-side ideas than universities
because they have to operate in the real world. Every day, they see the consequences
of excessive tax rates in operation in countries that need revenue a lot more
than feel-good redistributionist policies. They can't afford to overtax the
rich or they will just move or bribe the tax officials to leave them alone.
Either way, the government doesn't get any tax revenue to spend on pressing
social needs.
Furthermore, Bank and Fund officials have seen with their own eyes the impact
of low marginal tax rates in places like Russia , where implementation of a
13 percent flat tax in 2001 led to a significant increase in government revenue.
Although rates were much higher under the old system, evasion was so pervasive
that little revenue was actually collected. Under the new system, it was no
longer worth as much to risk punishment for evasion, leading to increased compliance
and higher revenues. OK, my friends at TAPPED might say, but what about academia?
Isn't supply-side economics still ignored there? The answer is no. A good example
is Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago .
After many years of dismissing supply-side economics in much the same way TAPPED
does, he finally took a serious look at it. In a 1990 article in the Oxford Economic
Papers, he admitted he had been wrong, that reducing taxes on capital could in
fact deliver a huge economic windfall, just as the supply-siders had argued.
Said Mr. Lucas, "The supply-side economists, if that is the right term
for those whose research I have been discussing, have delivered the largest
genuinely free lunch I have seen in 25 years in this business, and I believe
we would have a better society if we followed their advice." Earlier this year, Mr. Lucas reiterated support for supply-side
policies in his presidential address to the American Economic Association. He
compared supply-side economics with Keynesian stabilization policies and found
the former far superior to the latter. "The potential gains from improved
stabilization policies are on the order of hundredths of a percent of consumption,
perhaps two orders of magnitude smaller than the potential benefits of available
'supply-side' fiscal reforms," he concluded. Space prohibits the presentation of further evidence,
of which there is ample. Suffice it to say supply-side economics is far from
the academic outcast its enemies wish it was. |